Understanding the Waves of a Pandemic; The Third Wave of Covid-19 – By Dr Kyei, Mr Arthur-Mensah
What is a wave?
Since the emergence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), in December 2019, the COVID-19 has spread throughout the world, and has been described as occurring in several peaks in waves.
The term “wave” as used in infectious disease cycles, is generally used to describe the rising and declining trends of infections over a prolonged period. Naturally, epidemics and/or pandemic infection cases fluctuate by surging and falling intermittently, with a possibility of rising to a peak or declining and/or never to rise again. The wave phenomenon of epidemics and/or pandemics when presented diagrammatically resembles the frequency curves (see Figures 1&2). Several infections are seasonal in nature, and they recur after fixed time intervals.
Figure 1: Frequency curve
Source: Encyclopedia Britannica, (2021).
Figure 2: COVID-19 infection rates (Canada)
Source: Encyclopedia Britannica, (2021).
The waves of COVID-19
COVID-19 has continued relentlessly for the last eighteen months, but in every geographical area it has affected, there have been periods of surges that have been followed by periods of reduced infections. Infectious disease waves differ across countries, regions, state, and cities and each is distinct in its own science. Concerning the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries have experienced their fourth wave whilst others are yet recovering from their second wave. Typically, such series of waves manifest over different time frames and the epidemics and/or pandemic might not be necessarily over until affected countries, regions, state, and cities have gone through the impact of the wave.
Regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, the first wave referred to the onset of the infection and its primal consequences in populations. It was the period when all clinical cases of infections and diseases, hospital admissions, hospital readmissions, disabilities and deaths were directly linked to COVID-19. Technically, any country that recorded any positive case of COVID-19 experienced the first wave.
The second wave referred to the rise in active cases after the microbiology of the virus and its interaction with man was known and infection prevention and control practices were implemented to limit the spread of the infection. Technically, any country that recorded surges in positive cases of COVID-19 after the implementation of the preventive measures to the virus experienced the second wave.
The third wave is the increase in the number of active cases after the decline in cases from the second wave whose impact is on the social determinants of health. Many factors combine to affect the health of individuals. Whether people are healthy or not, is determined by their individual characteristics and behaviour, their physical environment and their social and economic environment (WHO, 2017). Examples of the physical environment and the social and economic environment of people include their place of residence, state of their environment, income levels, educational levels, unemployment levels, availability of social support services, microeconomic variables, relationships with family and friends etc. However, the major elements include access and use of health care services. The third wave will worsen health inequalities through severe economic injuries. The health impacts caused by this worsening economic recession will be complex especially where health care might just be the benefit of a few. For instance, many hospitals around the globe are already short-staffed and overwhelmed with patients, and some are short on oxygen, forcing a rationing of care. Simply put, the third wave is the increase in infections due to the citizens of a country letting their guard down on the preventive measures of the infections, due to harsh economic situations, which results in pressure and inequalities in health care seeking services where only the able can access health care. Complications of this wave is that, people die not directly from COVID-19, but due to the economic fallout; job losses and other financial pressures that are known from historical recessions to increase physical and mental stress. This wave is not far from many countries.
Based on the ongoing discussion, we ask these questions as a country;
- How far is Ghana in its second wave and how well is the country coping?
- Is Ghana in its third wave?
- Can Ghana experience the third wave and what preparations are in place to meet any such possibilities?
Your response is as good as ours!!!
To prevent the third wave, countries must act now to repair, fix and strengthen their economies. They also need to prioritize access and utilization to basic and specialized health care needs of their citizens else the countries risk continuum into subsequent waves which will impact generations unborn.
The lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, both positive and negative, can be overwhelming, yet the reality of this pandemic is that: the virus has got into everything about our daily lives.
As scientists work around the clock to eliminate the virus, let us continue to act responsibly and adhere to the precautions and preventive measures using the Swiss Cheese respiratory virus intervention model (see Figure 3).
Figure 3: The Swiss Cheese respiratory virus intervention model
Source: www.uihc.org/covid-toolkit
By:
Mr. Reginald Arthur-Mensah Jnr & Dr. Abigail Kyei
Department of Nursing and Midwifery, Pentecost University.
References
Encyclopedia Britannica (Accessed June 17, 2021)
How to stop the COVID-19: The Swiss Cheese model. Retrieved from www.uihc.org/covid-toolkit University of Iowa Health Care. (Accessed June 17, 2021).
WHO, (2017). Determinants of Health. Retrieved from https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/determinants-of-health (Accessed June 17, 2021).
526 Comments
This is beautiful
Well done 👏👏👏
Good information and has made me remember a letter Albert Einstein wrote about the connection between physics and biology. Now I know one of the connections is wave.
I really like the questions raised in the write up. This questions has a connection with what the citizens are saying “Fix the Country”. Things will be roughly tough and we would not be able to stand the waves of this disease if the country is not fix.
Good write up.
Thanks for this! Hopefully, the health sector would utilize the limited available resources to manage this wave and importantly, prevent a third one. At this point any further decline in the economy would be catastrophic, it seems it already is.
Thanks for this! Hopefully, the health sector would properly utilize the limited available resources to manage this wave and importantly, prevent a third one. At this point any further decline in the economy would be catastrophic, it seems it already is.
Good information. Well done 👍
Great job 👏
Great piece . Thanks for keeping us updated.
Waow, water is soft and yet it penetrates mountain 🏔️.
Let us follow the preventive measures strictly and leave the rest to God through prayers🙏.
Thank you!
Very informative, thank you
Great! Water is soft and yet it penetrates mountain 🏔️
Let us follow the preventive measures strictly and leave the rest to God through prayers🙏
Great! Water is soft and yet it penetrates mountain 🏔️
Let us follow the preventive measures strictly and leave the rest to God through prayers🙏
Great content, well done
Very educative, these are very important questions that needs to be addressed. Well done sir.
Wonderful insightful by all standards. Good work done
Thanks for this great masterpiece🙏Prevention is indeed the key
Very educative and insightful. Well done 👌
Thanks so much for the update. Its so sad how Ghanaians still don’t believe the pandemic truly exist.May God protect us all.
Great piece💯
Good Job. Thanks Soo much for the such an information
Very informative. Thanks for keeping us updated . Hmm God help us all 🙏🙏🙏.
Good Job. Thanks Soo much for such an information
Good Job. Thanks Soo much for such an information. Indeed prevention is the key.
Very insightful💥
Great piece👌🏽🌟
Thanks Mr Reginald and Dr Kyei🤝
Well done much appreciated 👏
Thank you so much. I’m hoping everyone would adapt the Swiss cheese respiratory virus intervention model to save the generation.❣️
Very educative. Thank you for this
Very educative content. Well done.
Very educative and insightful. From observations made, our beloved country is on its way to the third wave. We pray to God we don’t get there cos most will not survive it.
Good job to bosses.
Very educative….great job done kudos🤝
Simply put. Hope citizens also contribute their bit by practising the preventive measures and not being complacent. Health workers are being affected badly by this whole thing. Of course, Ghana as a country has been no where near prepared for any of the waves.
Thanks for sharing. Good job. Keep educating us
Very educative
Good work done👏🏽
Thank you for this great information…Very educative.God bless you
Thank you for this great information…Very educative.God bless you
Insightful and educative🙌🏼
Great Job and very educative.thank you
Excellent presentation and very educative.thank you and well done
Deep thinking and deep insights. Very well done!! We hope to prevent a third wave.
Thoughtful and proactive piece, as a people we need to critically ask ourselves these hard questions and genuinely answer them.
I really needed this information in this time. Very educative with simplicity. Good job and I am proud of this versatile and gifted team. More grace
This is a call for concern. Our government must sit up and prioritize healthcare now and forever in our country. Well done Dr. Kyei and Mr. Reginald Arthur-Mensah Jnr
Great. Well done. I pray we all learn and know this covid thing is real. Thanks for the information. Keep it up 👍
Very educative. Thank you
Awesome and factual information
Awesome and factual information.
Very educative. Looking forward to more updates on the virus
Wow, very educative and informative. Looking forward to receive more updates
Very enlightening. Thank you.
Very educative write up,well done sir and madam.
Very educative write up, well done madam and sir.
Correctly captured… This is a great write up indeed
Very Educative and worth reading
Very insightful…
good work done 👏🏽👏🏽
Very educative
Good work done 👍
Good. A timely caution to all developing countries . Ghana needs to remain focus.
This article is very educative. Good work done
Very important. Every individual has a preventative role to play in reducing the spread.
Thanks for the education.
Thank you enlightening us
Keep it up 👏👏
Thanks so much for the update, we pray that, stakeholders will respond to the critical questions you raised.
Nice piece 👌. Thank you for updating us 😊❤️
Well done 👍
Very educative👍
Very educative. Good job
Very vital information, thank you sir
Very educative
This is a great write up and should be shared across.
“For instance, many hospitals around the globe are already short-staffed and overwhelmed with patients, and some are short on oxygen, forcing a rationing of care.”
With this statement, it will be of great benefit to Ghana as a whole should the personalities or the heads within the health sector are work meticulously to put things in place.
“Simply put, the third wave is the increase in infections due to the citizens of a country letting their guard down on the preventive measures of the infections, due to harsh economic situations, which results in pressure and inequalities in health care seeking services where only the able can access health care”.
With this statement as well, I only Pray and hope our economic situation will decline from being harsh to being levelled to meet the needs of all and sundry, especially the health needs of our people.”
God bless you Dr. Kyei and Mr. Arthur-Mensah for this write-up.
Great Job 👍
Very Educative. I nkow someone who might want to read this.
Very insightful. I hope the the stick holders of the GHS See this write up as i am seeing it. May God helps us all. God write up. Welk Done🙏🏽
Very educative, these are questions that has to be addressed by the country . Thank you
This is a very good writeup. We really have to take good care of ourselves to prevent the third wave.
Great piece 👍
Good job sir keep it up
Great job
Wonderful piece, great insight
Well done great job
Nice job done
Good work
Good work👏
Wonderful job . Keep it up.
Good job sir👏👏
Good work done
Good job done sir
Very educative great job done
Nice piece.📚👍God bless you 🙏🏾
Great job👍👌
Very educative great job done
Good job sir 👏👏
Great work done
Wow, thanks for the information
Good write up. Very educative..
Thanks alot for the knowledge…very informative
Great job 👍👍
Great job and thanks very much for such an educative information 👏👏👏
Great work done. Thank you
Very educative, these are very important questions that needs to be addressed Ayekoo sir Regi and Doc.
Your works need to be recommended and awarded
Great job 👍 very insightful, we now have a better and simple understanding of the “waves” we always hear about
Thanks for the information sir
Insightful analysis🤝
Insightful analysis🤝
Bravo!!
Very Educative.
I have learned a lot from your write up.
Hoping to see more of this from you sir.
Thank you.
Very educative
Impressive. Very informative
Keep up the good work
Very educative and insightful.
Wow. This is very educative. Thanks for such enlightenment. Kudos.
Very informative. Great job👏👏
This is very interesting and informative workpiece… keep doing the good work!!,.. God bless and your team…I must say I’m very much impressed….Ayekooo!!!!
Great job! This is very informative and educative.
More grace to do more.
Thank you for this insightful masterpiece. May God intervene and cause this pandemic to go on an extinction.
Great job. Very educative and insightful
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